Black Knight Home Price Index Report: November 2016 Transactions — U.S. Home Prices Up 0.2 Percent for the Month; Up 5.7 Percent Year-Over-Year

  1. – After rising 5.7 percent from the start of 2016, U.S. home prices are now within just 0.3 percent of a new national peak
  2. – For the fifth straight month, New York led all states in monthly home price appreciation, seeing 1.1 percent growth from October 2016
  3. – Though New York City was the best-performing metro area, Florida and Tennessee dominated the rest of the Top 10 list, together accounting for eight of the 10 best-performing metros
  4. – Of the nation’s 40 largest metros, only St. Louis, Mo., saw negative year-to-date home price movement through November 2016
  5. – Home prices hit new peaks in six of the nation’s 20 largest states and eight of the 40 largest metros

JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Jan. 30, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on November 2016 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI utilizes repeat sales data from the nation’s largest public records data set, as well as its market-leading, loan-level mortgage performance data, to produce one of the most complete and accurate measures of home prices available for both disclosure and non-disclosure states. Non-disclosure states do not include property sales price information as part of their publicly available county recorder data. Black Knight is able to obtain the sales price information for these states by combining and matching records across its unique data assets.

Each month the Black Knight HPI reports five price levels (quintiles), along with REO discount rates, for 18,000+ U.S. ZIP codes. Findings are available with or without seasonal adjustments, although all numbers that follow have not been seasonally adjusted.

For a more in-depth review of this month’s home price trends, including detailed looks at average home prices in the 20 largest states and 40 largest metros, please download the full Black Knight HPI Report at http://www.bkfs.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/HPINow.aspx

Black Friday Isn’t The Appetiser — It’s The Cannibal That Eats Christmas

There are probably bigger things occupying most peoples’ minds today as Trump is sworn in, but UK marketers — particularly those in retail — got a piece of news that wasn’t too obvious at first inspection but leaps out once you crunch the numbers. The Office for National Statistics has officially revealed what we all probably thought was true. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are not an appetiser for Christmas — they are a pair online cannibals that eat it.

There has been a debate over the past couple of years that has seemed mind-bogglingly simple to unpick. On the one hand, some retail analysts have predicted the end of November sales are just there to get early shopping done and the numbers will pick up again in December. The other argument is more sensible: this is nonsense and people will simply get Christmas done early, hide presents and keep the credit card for the food purchases that obviously can’t be made a month before the big day.

Now we have the figures from the ONS to underscore that the common-sense argument is the correct one. The fourth quarter was good for retail, with sales up. December, for example, was up 4.3% on the corresponding month in 2015. However, it’s worth noting that it saw a 1.9% dip from November, the month before. Look at online sales and the figures are clear. December 2016 was up more than a fifth against December 2015, but there was a 5% dip in sales from the month before — November 2016. So as we went from November to December in 2016, total sales were down, and that dip was exacerbated online.

If you want the killer stat, compare sales figures for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday week (22nd to 28th November) and you’ll see order values were up 28% on the Christmas week of December 21st to 27th (which would obviously have taken in both last-minute shopping and the Boxing Day sales).

It really doesn’t take a genius to figure it out, does it? Black Friday and Cyber Monday have changed shopper behaviour. People don’t suddenly need more stuff. Everyone usually has a rough mental budget of what they are spending per person, and they are more than happy to let that figure go a little further a month before Christmas by seeking out a late November deal.

A lot is being written about these figures showing that we are increasingly shopping online, particularly mobile, but that’s a continuation of what we already know. It’s a trend that has been noticeable for a while now. The real importance to me is that these figures show we have changed the way we shop and retailers and their marketing teams will have to accept it. There is no late recovery once the bargains have been snapped up in November. It was a pipe dream that hasn’t panned out. People buy in the sales a month early and congratulate themselves on having “done” Christmas.